This is part 9 of 30 in the Hammertime Sequence. Click here for the intro.
I’ve been thinking about whether or not regular betting, prediction markets, and being well-calibrated is actually useful, and if so how to practice train calibration on a short feedback loop.
Being able to make accurate time-to-completion estimates, at least, is extremely powerful. This post describes my current strategy for staying calibrated about time estimates.